Updated November 10, 2026.
A jackpot line and a lightning figure can share a sentence and still count different events. This page sets current Powerball and Mega Millions odds beside Weather Service lightning estimates and National Safety Council lifetime odds, with the period and the denominator of each. The combination count is on the odds guide. Past drawings are on the Powerball and Mega Millions results pages, and gaps are on the Powerball and Mega Millions number pages. Statistics and generated picks do not guarantee a win, and this site is not responsible for any win or loss.
What each figure counts
A lottery odds figure counts combinations for one play in one drawing. Powerball prints its chart for a $2 play, rounded to two decimal places. Mega Millions prints its chart for a $5 play with the multiplier included.
The council’s 2024 lifetime odds divide the population it states, 340,110,989, by deaths, then divide again by 79.0, the life expectancy for someone born that year. Its example, an accidental opioid overdose, is about 1 in 6,657 in 2024 and about 1 in 84 over 79.0 years. The figures are U.S. averages, and odds based on fewer than 20 deaths are left out.
NCHS Data Brief 548 (January 29, 2026) reports the same 79.0-year life expectancy at birth, up from 78.4 in 2023, and 3,072,666 resident deaths. Heart disease led, then cancer, then unintentional injuries. The age-adjusted heart-disease rate was 157.6 per 100,000 standard population, fit to a standard age mix. Dividing 100,000 by 157.6 is not a person’s chance of dying of heart disease.
Jackpot odds on the current matrices
Powerball draws 5 white balls from 1 through 69 and 1 red ball from 1 through 26. The prize chart gives the jackpot as 1 in 292,201,338.00. Mega Millions draws 5 white balls from 1 through 70 and 1 Mega Ball from 1 through 24. The how-to-play page gives the jackpot as 1 in 290,472,336. Full tier lists are on the Powerball and Mega Millions guides. Power Play and the Mega Millions multiplier change non-jackpot prize amounts only.
Any Powerball prize is 1 in 24.87 on a $2 play. A March 25, 2025 release put any Mega Millions prize at 1 in 23. Most of either figure is the smallest tier, the Powerball alone at 1 in 38.32 or the Mega Ball alone at 1 in 35. In California, lower-tier amounts are pari-mutuel.
Lightning, from the National Weather Service
The Weather Service page “How Dangerous is Lightning?” averages 2009 through 2018: a 2019 population of 330,000,000, 27 reported deaths a year, and an estimated 243 injuries, 270 people struck. About 10 percent of people struck are killed, the step from 27 deaths to 270. Dividing 330,000,000 by 270 gives about 1,222,222, printed as 1 in 1,222,000 per year. Over an estimated 80-year life the page prints 1 in 15,300. These odds include injuries and use 80 years, not the 79.0 years in the 2024 life table.
Dividing 292,201,338 by 1,222,000 gives about 239, and 290,472,336 by 1,222,000 gives about 238, so one jackpot ticket is on that order less likely than the one-year strike estimate. Against the 80-year figure, the same divisions by 15,300 are about 19,100 and about 19,000. The council’s 2024 table prints no lightning-death odds. The year had too few deaths for its cutoff.
Where lower-tier prizes sit
| Figure | Odds | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Powerball jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338.00 | One $2 play, one drawing |
| Mega Millions jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 | One $5 play, one drawing |
| Struck by lightning | 1 in 1,222,000 | NWS, one year, 2009–2018, injuries included |
| Powerball, five white balls only | 1 in 11,688,053.52 | One drawing |
| Mega Millions, five white balls only | 1 in 12,629,232 | One drawing |
| Powerball, four plus the Powerball | 1 in 913,129.18 | One drawing |
| Mega Millions, four plus the Mega Ball | 1 in 893,761 | One drawing |
| Lightning over an estimated life | 1 in 15,300 | NWS figure spread over 80 years |
| Mega Millions, three plus the Mega Ball | 1 in 13,965 | One drawing |
| Cataclysmic storm | 1 in 14,115 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| Powerball, three plus the Powerball | 1 in 14,494.11 | One drawing |
| Dog attack | 1 in 33,899 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| Powerball, four white balls | 1 in 36,525.17 | One drawing |
| Mega Millions, four white balls | 1 in 38,859 | One drawing |
| Hornet, wasp, and bee stings | 1 in 42,626 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| Motorcyclist | 1 in 726 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| Powerball, two plus the Powerball | 1 in 701.33 | One drawing |
| Fall | 1 in 89 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| Powerball, one plus the Powerball | 1 in 91.98 | One drawing |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 1 in 101 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
| All preventable causes | 1 in 22 | NSC lifetime, 2024, causes combined |
| Any Mega Millions prize | 1 in 23 | One play; release of March 25, 2025 |
| Any Powerball prize | 1 in 24.87 | One $2 play, every tier |
| Heart disease | 1 in 6 | NSC lifetime, 2024 |
The same table lists cancer at 1 in 7. Lightning and airplane-passenger deaths are marked too few to calculate. It uses NCHS deaths for 2024 under ICD-10, with Census population and life expectancy. Dividing 24.87 by 6 gives about 4.1, so the printed heart-disease chance is about four times the printed any-prize chance.
Five white balls without the special ball are about 9.6 times rarer than the one-year strike estimate, since 11,688,053.52 divided by 1,222,000 is about 9.6. Four plus the Powerball moves the other way, because 1,222,000 divided by 913,129.18 is about 1.3. The next cluster runs from 1 in 13,965 to 1 in 15,300, about 10 percent from end to end. It holds three white balls plus the special ball, a cataclysmic storm, and the 80-year strike estimate. The storm row averages 2024 deaths over a life. Each prize row is one ticket.
Four Powerball white balls, 1 in 36,525.17, are about 8 percent rarer than a lifetime dog attack at 1 in 33,899. Stings at 1 in 42,626 are about 10 percent rarer than four Mega Millions white balls at 1 in 38,859. The $7 tier at 1 in 701.33 and a motorcyclist death at 1 in 726 differ by about 4 percent. A fall at 1 in 89 and one white ball plus the Powerball at 1 in 91.98 differ by about 3 percent.
One ticket on every drawing for 79 years
Extending one ticket across 79.0 years is arithmetic on this page, separate from the charts. A 52-week year has 156 Powerball drawings and 104 Mega Millions drawings. The Mega Ball field changed on April 8, 2025. The sum freezes today’s odds, assumes one ticket every drawing and no split jackpot, and is not a suggestion to buy the series.
Seventy-nine times 156 is 12,324 Powerball drawings, and 292,201,338 divided by 12,324 is about 1 in 23,700 for at least one jackpot. Seventy-nine times 104 is 8,216 Mega Millions drawings, and 290,472,336 divided by 8,216 is about 1 in 35,400. The Powerball figure is rarer than the 80-year strike estimate of 1 in 15,300 and more likely than a dog attack at 1 in 33,899. The Mega Millions figure is within about 4 percent of the dog-attack figure.
What a close number leaves unchanged
A precise 2024 lifetime odds line for lightning or for an airplane passenger is not the council table: both are under the 20-death cutoff. Shark-bite odds are omitted as well. A bite total is an odds figure only after the year, the place, and the denominator are chosen.
The next Powerball jackpot ticket is still 1 in 292,201,338.00, and the next Mega Millions jackpot ticket is still 1 in 290,472,336. A second different ticket doubles that chance, as the odds guide explains, and a larger annuity adds no combinations. The Powerball and Mega Millions results pages, and the Powerball and Mega Millions number pages, describe drawings already stored. Statistics and generated picks do not guarantee a win, and this site is not responsible for any win or loss.
Sources
- Powerball prize chart — jackpot and lower-tier odds, and 1 in 24.87 overall, for a $2 play.
- Mega Millions how to play — 5/70 and 1/24, with 1 in 290,472,336 and the lower tiers.
- Mega Millions, March 25, 2025 — any-prize odds of 1 in 23.
- National Weather Service, “How Dangerous is Lightning?” — 1 in 1,222,000 per year and 1 in 15,300 over 80 years, from 2009–2018 averages.
- National Safety Council, Odds of Dying, 2024 — the lifetime table, including “too few deaths” rows.
- National Safety Council data details, 2024 — population 340,110,989, life expectancy 79.0, and the 20-death cutoff.
- NCHS Data Brief 548 — 79.0-year life expectancy, 3,072,666 deaths, and heart disease at 157.6 per 100,000.